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1. Cease fire now, unilateral and enforced if necessary - act like a superpower, not a combatant Much of the recent discussion about a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine war has revolved around how to get Russia to accept a ceasefire, rather than saying "Yes, but.." in a quagmire of conditions that amounts to the "Nyet" Putin would prefer to avoid giving U.S. President Donald Trump. This assumes Putin's consent is necessary for a ceasefire. It is not. Ukraine has already agreed to a ceasefire; if Russia refuses, the U.S. should, for once, act not like a regional or even world power, but, as we often say but seldom consider the implications of, the world's sole remaining superpower. A unilateral ceasefire could be as simple as: no Russian forces will be attacked unless they attack Ukrainian forces or civilians; all Russian forces that attack Ukrainian forces or civilians, directly or indirectly, will be destroyed. As in Serbia, NATO has the ability to impose and enforce such a ceasefire. If Putin refuses to accept a bilateral ceasefire, the U.S. and NATO should impose it, after duly warning Russian forces, to minimize casualties and encourage compliance. Russian forces stuck in Ukraine should be treated humanely and not harmed as long as they comply with the ceasefire. Russian forces, such as missiles, bombers, fighters, glide bombs, drones, air defense and launch sites outside Ukraine will also be left unmolested as long as they too comply with the ceasefire, but destroyed if they do not. 2. Lend-lease, provide more and faster Although the 0.53% of GDP the U.S sends in aid to Ukraine is relatively small, it is still a concern both for U.S. taxpayers as too much, and Ukraine as not enough to seriously defend itself. As the U.S. did for Britain and Russia in World War II, much more is needed, but it doesn't have to be charity. Lend-lease, then as now, allows much more robust support while enforcing burden sharing in the long run. It may sound harsh, but if the Ukrainians want to be independent, they can help pay for it. That also preserves the U.S. "super" power status, above the fray but ready to support freedom, and maintains the core economic and military strength of FDR's "arsenal of democracy". 3. Ask and provide what's needed - WW2, Harry Hopkins to Stalin Lend-lease also means no more 'beggars can't be choosers' for Ukraine, with the U.S. throttling the supply of weapons that Ukraine needs to defend itself. When it was Russia under attack during World War II, FDR sent Harry Hopkins to Moscow with one question for Stalin: "what do you need?" Stalin wasn't bashful, and the 75,000 tons of aluminum for aircraft, and planes, parts and plans allowed the Soviet Union to hold its own and eventually prevail against the Nazi threat. Today, Russia is the aggressor, and instead of dribbling out aid like crumbs from the master's table, the U.S. needs to again ask Harry Hopkin's question, this time of Ukraine, "What do you need?" 4. Defense production act Remember during the pandemic when we rediscovered the Defense Production Act to nudge/compel/goad automakers to make ventilators, of all things? Now is the time to put that legislation to its intended purpose and ramp up production of the defense equipment Ukraine needs, and to avoid depleting essential stockpiles, especially of those weapons the current conflict shows are most critical. Requiring some manufacturers to retool, others to share plans and technologies, and imposing cooperation where competition normally reigns will increase defense capability, help Ukraine and signal to adversaries our willingness to do what is necessary to defend freedom. And create jobs, lots of jobs, in the one sector that a modern, prosperous democracy, as recent events have once again shown, unfortunately cannot afford to neglect. 5. Reduce tariffs to replace civilian production shifted to defense, keep China on sidelines Trusted allies should be included where practicable in defense production, for example of ships and armaments in South Korea, Japan and Europe. Also, reduced tariffs on other imports, like cars, can both help ease the pain for consumers, and encourage trading partners, especially China, to stay on the sidelines or even reduce their support for Russia, as new import opportunities to the U.S. emerge. Let the Chinese make our electric cars for few years, while we make sure Ukraine, Europe and U.S. are safe and free to keep using them, as well as enjoying the many other benefits of a free society. 6. Surge defense capabilities to Ukraine, missile defense, counter air defense, planes Air power is essential to survival and victory in modern warfare. Ukraine survived the initial Russian onslaught by dispersing its air force to safety, and then by using at first shoulder fired SAMs and later more advanced air defense systems like the Patriot to deny Russia control over Ukrainian airspace. However, the handful of planes provided by European allies or the U.S. is nowhere near sufficient to allow Ukraine to control its own airspace. A recent article bemoaning the loss of one of Ukraine's F-16's shows the total lack of understanding of the scale of what is required to defend Ukraine. The Ukrainians need not a handful, or a few dozen, or even couple hundred planes, but at least several hundred, and provision to replace and repair losses, to establish air superiority over Ukraine, as well as more and better air defense, and anti-air defense weapons to reduce as much as possible the risk to their pilots. 7. Ukraine in NATO, coordinate defense - all excuses for neutral Ukraine canceled by war of aggression Russia's excuses about being threatened by NATO and keeping Ukraine as a buffer zone evaporated the moment Russian troops illegally invaded Ukraine, as Finland and Sweden have already realized in their joining NATO. If keeping Ukraine out of NATO was supposed to prevent war, how come it didn't work after the last 30 years of fits and starts on Ukrainian membership ended in war? Ukraine may not regain its lost territory as fast as it would like to, but, in conjunction with a cease fire, NATO membership, like that of West Germany after World War II, combined with sound economic and social policies, could pave way the way for eventual reunification as the benefits of western democracy, freedom and defensive vigilance outstrip tyranny over time. 8. Establish air superiority over Ukraine Think back to World War II or Desert Storm - the U.S. would never, ever attempt to counter even a regional adversary without overwhelming air superiority. Golden rule time. Take off the shackles and provide Ukraine the real air power it needs to defend itself, or, in conjunction with NATO, establish a firm, non-belligerent - but not provocatively weak either - air superiority and defensive shield over Ukraine. Time to implement the pro-Ukraine protesters' chant from the beginning of the war, "Clear the skies". 9. Think harder and creatively about incentives for Russia In addition to not seeming desperate to make a deal, President Trump's Art of the Deal also tells us that the leverage required to make a good deal "often requires imagination, and salesmanship". None of the calls for reparations or more severe treatment of Russia are likely to end the war. Inducements, or the off-ramp many seek but none have found for Putin to end the war and save face, have not so far worked either. That may be from a lack of imagination. Especially when we consider the potential terrible cost of not making a deal, imaginative ideas that might seem outlandish at first blush might be just what's needed: · Free trade deal with Russia, perhaps expand USMCA, now that global warming is making up polar neighbors. · Joint space program - continue and expand cooperation on the International Space Station and its successor. Joint missions to the moon and Mars. Figure out a competitive structure for Roscosmos to work with U.S. and other allied space agencies and firms. Give them half of Mars, like Spain and Portugal's deal to split the world. Future generations can sort that out - they'll blame us, but at least they'll be around to do it. · Revive Partnership for Peace - idealistic and, in hindsight, often thought unrealistic, the post Cold War attempt to bring Russia into a mutual defense and peacekeeping agreement deserves another look. · Bering Strait bridge - crazy right? But not impossible, especially for such a world-renowned bridge builder as the mastermind of the Kerch Bridge to Crimea. In conjunction with free trade and the massive construction required not only for a bridge/tunnel/rail across the Bering Strait, but the infrastructure required on both sides, it would be a boon to both economies, as well as provide an alternative shipping method for trade between North America and Asia. In short, use a lot more imagination to find a win, and make Russia an ally, or at least not an enemy. 10. Apply Cold War lessons, truce, strong deterrence and strong economy Failing a grand peace deal, fall back on tried-and-true Plan B: The post WW II Cold War model for Germany, and post Cold War Poland and Eastern Europe: economic prosperity, social justice, democracy, the rule of law and strong defense will prevail in the long run, and often peacefully, over tyranny, corruption and brutal oppression.
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