 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone
Almost no one expected the Russians to still be fighting, much less struggling to achieve their goals, after eight weeks of war in Ukraine. Despite its military power and magnitude, Russia has been humbled by Ukraine on the battlefield, and that will go down in history as a major military setback. How could a superpower with a huge military and state of the art weapons struggle in Ukraine?
Military experts say
one reason Ukraine has fared well against the Russians is because of drones,
which are now rewriting the rules of war. “The tank was key at one point, but
now drones may be the more decisive weapons system,” said John Parachini, a Rand Corp military researcher,
So far, the
Ukraine-Russia war appears to be a war of drones, with Ukraine holding its own
if not besting Russia in that arena. Ukraine's fleet of military drones
includes donations from supporting NATO nations, Ukraine-made products, and the
recently imported Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2. Also in play is the USA's
switchblade drone, which has been used to destroy many Russian surface-to-air
missile launchers and resupply vehicles. "A two-person team with a
Switchblade drone can be miles away and take out a $50 million piece of
equipment with five people in it," said Michael Robbins, head of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle
Systems International.
Russia has its own
supply of drones, but why has the nation done so poorly? The question is all
the more puzzling because during the Crimean war of 2014, the Russians used
drones to demolish Ukrainian military armaments and supplies. At that time
drone usage was well integrated into the Russian ground military.
But in Ukraine, the
Russians have not employed the same tactics as they did in Crimea. Moreover,
the Ukrainians, who did not have much in the way of drones during the Crimean
war, appear to have recognized their potential and subsequently amassed a sizeable
fleet. Exact numbers are hard to come by, but Ukraine estimtes that they have
downed or captured at least two to four dozen Russian drones.
The Ukrainian drones
Ukraine appears to
have 300 drones on the battlefield. The backbone of the fleet is the A1-S Fury,
followed by the Leleka 100 reconnaissance drones, both recently developed and
manufactured in Ukraine. In addition, the Ukrainians also possess high-altitude
Soviet-era Tu-141 reconnaissance drones, which have seen no success in the war.
However, the most
effective and lethal drone for the Ukrainians has been the Turkish Bayraktar
TB2 drone; this aerial flyer with a wingspan of 12 meters can carry four
laser-guided bombs. Ukraine appears to have at least three dozen Turkish drones
that have been credited with the destruction of dozens of tanks and/or other large vehicles and downed at least
a dozen surface-to-air missile systems and several command posts.
The Turkish drones
showed their full potential and capability during the 2020 war between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. And unlike the US or European drones, the Turkish drones are
relatively cheap, costing anywhere from $1 million to $10 million.
"I'd call it the
Toyota Corolla of drones,” said Aaron Stein, of the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute. "It
doesn't do everything that your high-end sports car does, but it does 80% of
that, right? So even for a high-end military, like the U.S., the basic concept
of using an attritable, cheap platform to strike a superior force has inherent
value."
The Russian Drones
Russia has a massive
collection of lethal drones that include the Zala kyb- also known as the
loitering munition, meaning that when it sees the target it will dive into it
and explode. However, the most common Russian drones are mid-sized ones used
for surveillance and reconnaissance. Other Russian drones include the Altius-U,
Granat 1, -2, -3, -4, Sukhoi S-70, Leer-3, Grom (Thunder), Kronshtadt Orion,
Okhotnik-B (Hunter), Kronstadt Sirius, Takhion, ENIKS (Eleron-3), and Orlan-10.
During the Syrian and Libyan wars, the Russians consistently used the Orlan 10
and Eleron 3 drones. However, it is important to note that the Russians did not
have any military opposition from the enemy and the drones did their job. In Ukraine,
on the other hand, those drones have faced a very capable enemy, and the Russians
have not fared well.
It appears that
Russians and Ukrainians are balanced when it comes to the number of drones. So
why has the former seen so little success? The answer lies in counter-drone
technology.
Counter drone
technology
The majority of counter-drone
systems today rely on a defensive electronic warfare program that spoofs and
jams enemy drones. These systems inundate the air with radiofrequency energy
and increase the noise threshold to such a level that the drone is unable to
differentiate signals from the remote pilot or the controls.
Another technique is
to send false signals to the drone or spoofed GPS signals which cause drone
disorientation. Russia is also known to utilize the Pantsir S1 surface-to-air
missile system to intercept and destroy drones. But in both Armenia and Syria,
the Russian countermeasures against drones didn't work well, especially against
the Turkish Bayraktar TB2s that were used by the Azerbaijanis. In most cases,
the Bayraktar was able to neutralize the Pantsir S1 radars.
Newer technology
allows recently built drones to switch frequencies so that they are not jammed
by the enemy's radiofrequency signals. If the drone is unable to reconnect with
the control tower, it can work autonomously with a series of preset maneuvers.
While a lot is known
about Russian counter-drone technology, not much is known about the systems
used by the Ukrainians. For obvious reasons, much of the data on American
defensive drone systems remain confidential.
Why Russia has not
done well in the Ukraine War
Even though Russia is
a leading manufacturer of military tools and has kept up with technology, it
has struggled with supplies since a ban was issued after the Crimean war in
2014. Military experts say Russia is hampered by technology embargoes and a stagnant
domestic industrial base that lacks capabilities. Despite its huge arsenal, the
Russian military has always relied heavily on foreign technology including
electronic parts, GPS modules, cameras, etc. Russians have been importing
military tools and parts from a dozen nations including France, the Czech
Republic, Israel, Spain, Japan, Switzerland, the USA, and the UK.
The other issue with
Russia's failure, according to American analyst Roger McDermott, may be related to Russian military leadership,
which most likely miscalculated and paid far too much importance to ground
forces' tactics in winning the war. “At the operational and tactical levels,
Russian military operations during the early phase of its invasion of Ukraine,
involved numerous errors and miscalculations,” he said.
Finally, it could be
that the Russian operational design failed to rely on its own high-tech
military capabilities. “The Russians did not appear to exploit the partial
success of their initial missile strikes and follow them up with large
fixed-wing strike packages,” said Israeli defense analyst Guy Plopsyky . “It could be that the Russians grossly overestimated their
capabilities and underestimated the Ukrainians. The Russians may have believed
that only ground forces would suffice and that extensive use of the tactical
aviation department would not be necessary to seize key objectives.”
It could also be that
since the Russians lost several tactical aircraft early on, they may have been
afraid of suffering more losses and decided to rely only on ground forces.
Conclusion
Finally, many Western
nations siding with Ukraine have sent state of art reconnaissance information as
well as the latest in high-tech counter-drone technology. This massive support
from Europeans and Americans has been one of the reasons why Ukrainian
counter-drone technology has fared exceptionally well.
The exact
counter-drone systems offered to Ukraine remain a secret but may include
features like the ability to withstand electronic attacks, switching to
frequencies that are not jammed, or autonomous operation. Further, both
Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have provided the latest systems to the Ukrainians,
but the exact assistance and military tools remain a secret.
S.Benji is a grad with an advanced degree in the sciences with an interest in avionics. He is a prolific writer with a wide range of publications. |
